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The following is the probability that each team will win the NCAA National Championship
based on the KPoz Power Rankings. Probabilities were determined by considering the odds that
each team would defeat its first-round opponent, multiplied by the odds that the team would
defeat either of its two potential second-round opponents while considering on the odds that each of
its potential second-round opponents would advance to the second round, and so on.
Since the
actual NCAA tournament bracket is used in calculating these odds and teams are evaluated by their
actual potential opponents, Team A which is ranked higher than Team B in the KPoz Power Rankings
may not necessarily be ranked higher here. Additionally, Team A may have a higher probability of advancing
to the Final Four than Team B, but Team B may have a higher probability of winning the tournament based
on each team's respective pool of potential opponents.
Since there are 64 teams in the tournament, any team with odds of better than 1-in-64 (i.e.
a probability of 1.5625% or higher) has a better-than-chance likelihood of winning the tournament
and should be considered a favorite.
The odds were verified by ensuring that the sum of all teams' second-round probabilities is 32, the Sweet-16
probability sum is 16, and so on.
|
| # |
Seed |
Team (KPoz Rank) |
Odds |
Probability |
| 1 |
1 |
UCLA (1) |
1 in 5.7 |
17.696% |
| 2 |
1 |
North Carolina (2) |
1 in 5.9 |
16.849% |
| 3 |
1 |
Memphis (3) |
1 in 8.2 |
12.149% |
| 4 |
1 |
Kansas (5) |
1 in 13.1 |
7.650% |
| 5 |
2 |
Tennessee (4) |
1 in 13.9 |
7.215% |
| 6 |
2 |
Texas (7) |
1 in 17.0 |
5.866% |
| 7 |
2 |
Duke (6) |
1 in 17.2 |
5.822% |
| 8 |
3 |
Wisconsin (8) |
1 in 22.4 |
4.465% |
| 9 |
2 |
Georgetown (9) |
1 in 27.6 |
3.622% |
| 10 |
3 |
Stanford (11) |
1 in 42.3 |
2.364% |
| 11 |
5 |
Drake (10) |
1 in 51.1 |
1.955% |
| 12 |
3 |
Xavier (13) |
1 in 61.3 |
1.632% |
| 13 |
7 |
Butler (12) |
1 in 71.3 |
1.402% |
| 14 |
3 |
Louisville (14) |
1 in 84.7 |
1.181% |
| 15 |
4 |
Washington St. (15) |
1 in 92.6 |
1.080% |
| 16 |
4 |
Pittsburgh (18) |
1 in 111 |
0.900% |
| # |
Seed |
Team (KPoz Rank) |
Odds |
Probability |
| 17 |
5 |
Michigan St. (16) |
1 in 114 |
0.874% |
| 18 |
5 |
Clemson (19) |
1 in 120 |
0.831% |
| 19 |
4 |
Vanderbilt (24) |
1 in 134 |
0.745% |
| 20 |
6 |
Southern California (20) |
1 in 148 |
0.674% |
| 21 |
4 |
Connecticut (22) |
1 in 153 |
0.655% |
| 22 |
5 |
Notre Dame (23) |
1 in 157 |
0.636% |
| 23 |
9 |
Kent (21) |
1 in 164 |
0.610% |
| 24 |
8 |
Indiana (17) |
1 in 177 |
0.564% |
| 25 |
6 |
Marquette (25) |
1 in 229 |
0.437% |
| 26 |
6 |
Purdue (26) |
1 in 333 |
0.301% |
| 27 |
6 |
Oklahoma (28) |
1 in 388 |
0.258% |
| 28 |
7 |
West Virginia (27) |
1 in 460 |
0.217% |
| 29 |
7 |
Gonzaga (31) |
1 in 577 |
0.173% |
| 30 |
9 |
Texas A&M (29) |
1 in 748 |
0.134% |
| 31 |
7 |
Miami (FL) (32) |
1 in 754 |
0.133% |
| 32 |
10 |
Arizona (33) |
1 in 1,050 |
0.095% |
| # |
Seed |
Team (KPoz Rank) |
Odds |
Probability |
| 33 |
10 |
St. Mary's (36) |
1 in 1,056 |
0.095% |
| 34 |
11 |
Baylor (35) |
1 in 1,091 |
0.092% |
| 35 |
8 |
Nevada-Las Vegas (37) |
1 in 1,350 |
0.074% |
| 36 |
12 |
Villanova (40) |
1 in 1,366 |
0.073% |
| 37 |
8 |
Mississippi St. (44) |
1 in 1,610 |
0.062% |
| 38 |
9 |
Arkansas (34) |
1 in 1,670 |
0.060% |
| 39 |
10 |
Davidson (46) |
1 in 1,831 |
0.055% |
| 40 |
9 |
Oregon (45) |
1 in 1,841 |
0.054% |
| 41 |
8 |
Brigham Young (39) |
1 in 1,907 |
0.052% |
| 42 |
11 |
Kansas St. (48) |
1 in 2,413 |
0.041% |
| 43 |
12 |
Temple (54) |
1 in 3,381 |
0.030% |
| 44 |
11 |
Kentucky (55) |
1 in 3,401 |
0.029% |
| 45 |
11 |
St. Joseph's (57) |
1 in 4,160 |
0.024% |
| 46 |
10 |
South Alabama (53) |
1 in 4,316 |
0.023% |
| 47 |
12 |
Western Kentucky (58) |
1 in 6,301 |
0.016% |
| 48 |
12 |
George Mason (72) |
1 in 13,356 |
0.007% |
| # |
Seed |
Team (KPoz Rank) |
Odds |
Probability |
| 49 |
13 |
Oral Roberts (80) |
1 in 15,492 |
0.006% |
| 50 |
14 |
Boise St. (87) |
1 in 27,915 |
0.004% |
| 51 |
14 |
Georgia (85) |
1 in 28,111 |
0.004% |
| 52 |
14 |
Cornell (91) |
1 in 32,106 |
0.003% |
| 53 |
13 |
Siena (96) |
1 in 37,549 |
0.003% |
| 54 |
15 |
Belmont (101) |
1 in 67,260 |
0.001% |
| 55 |
15 |
Maryland-Baltimore County (110) |
1 in 77,784 |
0.001% |
| 56 |
16 |
Portland St. (104) |
1 in 80,130 |
0.001% |
| 57 |
14 |
Cal. St.-Fullerton (109) |
1 in 86,765 |
0.001% |
| 58 |
13 |
San Diego (113) |
1 in 119,150 |
0.001% |
| 59 |
15 |
Austin Peay (125) |
1 in 213,865 |
>0.001% |
| 60 |
13 |
Winthrop (127) |
1 in 239,515 |
>0.001% |
| 61 |
15 |
American (139) |
1 in 560,883 |
>0.001% |
| 62 |
16 |
Texas-Arlington (160) |
1 in 1,199,964 |
>0.001% |
| 63 |
16 |
Mount St. Mary's (182) |
1 in 11,539,348 |
>0.001% |
| 64 |
16 |
Mississippi Valley St. (268) |
1 in 647,468,456 |
>0.001% |
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